Previously, we proposed key elements required for giga-projects to achieve successful outcomes: an anchoring vision; a focus on socio-economic outcomes; placemaking; financial sustainability; and inclusive & holistic design. We believe addressing these 5 elements correctly leads to better outcomes for Giga-Projects themselves and positively impacts society at large. Giga-Projects are scaled real estate ecosystems, and Saudi Arabia is leading the charge by pioneering them. In this article, we analyse Saudi Giga-Projects using our framework.

Saudi Giga-Projects: A Recap

Saudi Arabia’s economic transformation programme (Vision 2030) turns 10 in April 2026. The programme aims to diversify the economy away from oil and position Saudi Arabia as a global economic player. Giga-projects are one facet of realising this goal.

Saudi Arabia’s Giga-Projects ecosystem is split between iconic and foundational projects. Iconic projects seek to redefine Saudi Arabia and what it means to be Saudi, and NEOM, Qiddiyah, Diriyah, The Red Sea, and Al-Ula are leading the charge. These foundational projects are creating new sectors and catalysing existing sectors. The Rig, Jeddah Central, Sports Boulevard, Murabba, Soudah, Rua Al Madinah, King Salman Gate, King Salman Park and others are all actively contributing towards economic diversification.

Real estate underpins these projects, and after a decade, a reassessment is on the horizon, with some already underway (see here and here).
This has provided the opportunity to apply our framework to understand the underlying issues.

Key Elements

An anchoring Vision, socio-economic outcomes, placemaking, financial sustainability and holistic & inclusive design are five components of our framework. We view the Giga-Projects through these 5 elements/perspectives to better understand these real estate ecosystems.

Anchoring Vision

Vision 2030 outlines three key themes encompassing the economic transformation programme, which are (i) A Vibrant Society; (ii) A Thriving Economy; (iii) An Ambitious Nation. The three themes reveal a pattern of interdependence that supports the overall goal. It begins with building a strong community by putting principles of religious, cultural, psychological, and social well-being into practice. This leads to the second aspect, building ‘a thriving Economy’ by providing jobs through various endeavours such as new economic sectors, evolving existing sectors to attract institutional investments, and a business-friendly regulatory environment. Collectively, these two aspects aim to build ‘an ambitious nation’ engaged in creating an inclusive and collective future.

Steady progress across metrics has been shown in the 2024 Annual Update of Vision 2030. A detailed review of the web pages shows the programme’s direct and indirect interconnectedness, guiding readers to conclude that these projects are well-visioned—meaning they are appropriately positioned to serve as delivery mechanisms for the 3 core themes.

The Giga-Projects are not Saudi Arabia’s first experiment with real estate as an economic engine; rather, from our perspective, this is the third wave. Wave 1 began in the mid-1970s, when Saudi Arabia, through the creation of the Royal Commission for Jubail and Yanbu, established industrial clusters to support the growing petrochemical industry. Wave 2 began in the mid-2000s with the conceptualisation of the Economic Cities to supplement the economic corridor comprising Jeddah, Riyadh, and Khobar/Dammam. The ECs were, in essence, the first multidisciplinary attempt to use real estate to generate economic value by combining private-sector involvement with placemaking, and a relaxed regulatory framework to achieve economic diversification. Since 2016, the Giga-Projects represent Wave 3 and are markedly different. For the first time, national development is anchored in a vision of the future. From the 1970s until the late 90s, Saudi Arabia produced five-year development plans that allocated public spending across different sectors, creating an impression of incremental development that included real estate. This wave carries with it a broad set of social parameters looking to redefine and reposition Saudi Arabia’s society.

We may not possess the extensive capabilities of the Saudi Governmental apparatus; however, our experience enables us to conclude that the projects are well-intentioned and correctly aligned with the vision of economic diversification. Therefore, the Giga-Projects perform well against the first component of the framework and withstand scrutiny.

A vision provides the foundations, but strong outcomes supplement it.

Socio-economic Outcomes

The core outcomes of Giga-Projects are: (i) acting as catalysts for existing sectors; (ii) providing a foundation for new sectors; (iii) spreading economic activity across the country; and (iv) a correctly skilled labour force with the right balance of general, specialist, and transferable skills. Giga-projects can influence a broad range of social outcomes due to their scale, including social cohesion through narrative building. We briefly elaborate on these socio-economic outcomes below.

Sector Catalysts and Development.
Saudi giga-projects have catalysed the tourism/hospitality sector of the economy. Previously, economic activity in this sector was limited to Makkah and Madinah, serving religious pilgrims. Since the inception of Giga-Projects, hospitality has expanded as a structured economic sector to secondary cities such as Soudah. Moreover, the Saudi Downtown Company is mandated to develop urban town centres in secondary and tertiary cities to generate economic activity. Real estate and related industries remain a significant part of the economy, and other sectors, such as EV manufacturing, AI, and defence manufacturing, have opened up opportunities for private-sector investment. Entertainment & Leisure, a largely non-existent part of the economy, has seen significant activity and local investments. Projects such as a Boulevard and multiple high-profile sporting events (boxing, Formula 1, and Wrestling) have created supplementary business activity supporting these events.

Labour Skills Development.
Giga-Projects play a critical role in developing labour skills by acting as incubators and accelerators. The attraction of global talent, supplemented by local talent, creates a unique environment for skills exchange. Global designers, investors, developers, operators, and asset managers converge to realise the project, supported by local talent. The result is the transformation of local talent, benefiting the future. We have witnessed this first-hand while working on these projects, where graduate programmes select young talent, match their aspirations with suitable roles, and provide mentoring from international experts. Disciplines such as construction management, project management, finance & accounting, and hospitality operations are just a few that undergo this process, with some achieving full skill localisation. This is a sharp departure from past practices where local workforce were employed to meet quota requirements. The new reality ensures knowledge remains within the economy and upskills future generations. We also see this unfolding in the asset management space, as global asset managers bring their presence and international expertise to the Saudi market, ensuring Giga-Project assets are managed with robust financial discipline.

Spatial Rebalancing.
Giga-projects help redistribute socio-economic activity across regions by creating new activity centres. Saudi Arabia experimented with this when it created King Abdullah Economic City (KAEC) in 2005, a privately developed city spread over 150km^2 to create a new socio-economic centre on the Western side of Saudi Arabia. It was intended to divert new economic activity from Jeddah to KAEC, creating a sub-economic corridor. Giga-Projects also enhance the spatial proposition of existing cities, provided they are correctly integrated into the urban fabric. The creation of Diriyah Gate, Qiddiya, and KAFD provides an early indication of spatial integration as Riyadh transitions into a global city.

Tourism, Culture, and Soft-power Returns.
Giga-project assets are created around an underlying theme or direction, and in Saudi Arabia, this theme is tourism and culture. The selection of these assets reflects Saudi Arabia’s ambition to transform its old identity, which, from a Western perspective, has been associated with oil, tribal society, and archaic traditions, into a new identity centred on its emergence as a global economic powerhouse and player. The projects attract international visitors to experience the cultural fabric of Saudi society, helping to reshape prevailing perceptions. Over time and with repeated visits, a new global identity is created and crystallised.

Narrative Building.
Giga-projects act as a collective reference point for any society. For Saudi Arabia, this translates into developing a consistent cultural narrative and strong national identity as it charts its path into the future. Identity, culture, traditions, beliefs, and aspirations are embedded within real estate assets—a physical manifestation of the narrative. Thus, the narrative is created through diligent curation of experiences and events; Formula 1, boxing events, Golf Tournaments, and community events in Diriyah are examples of this revised narrative. An absent narrative creates a built environment similar to cities—someone else’s story. The narrative of a strong nation existed before 2016; however, it was hidden under the international media’s interpretation of “oil and a closed society”.

Economic outcomes appear to be steadily progressing, but their full achievement has yet to be realised, given that only 10 years have passed since the programme was launched. Micro-scale socio-economic outcomes are being achieved regularly, as demonstrated by Diriyah’s unwavering focus on community programmes that support the local community through initiatives such as preferential recruitment within the Diriyah Region. Similar initiatives are also evident across other giga-projects. Macro-scale socio-economic outcomes, however, remain less clear, as the link between individual projects and broader outcomes remains difficult to establish. We consider the micro-scale achievements substantial in their own right, given the country’s history and the speed at which they have been achieved. Economic progress, however, is only as durable as the places through which it is expressed.

Placemaking

Placemaking is the third element of the framework. It focuses on integrating the Giga-Project with the immediate community, regional & national cultural identity, and transitioning towards a global place. The Saudi Giga-Projects have tackled placemaking in the reverse order. That is, they have focused on becoming a global place and then connecting with the immediate identity. However, a few exceptions exist, such as the Diriyah Gate and Al-Ula projects, which are crafted around their immediate surroundings. This form of placemaking, focused on a global outlook, has achieved notable successes within the region, most notably The Palm and Burj Khalifa in the UAE. Global placemaking creates a built environment that appeals to a global audience but risks becoming disconnected from the local community. The iconic building and its surrounding built environment awe visitors, imparting the false impression that they represent Emirati culture and values, while obscuring the richness of the UAE’s culture. In our view, Saudi Giga-projects run the same risk: creating a built environment that prevents visitors from understanding the depth of Saudi culture and values, while exposing the investments to financial risk. It will create assets devoid of any connection to the local community, leaving visitors with a generic experience that could be replicated anywhere in the world. For a brief period, Saudi Arabia experienced this with King Abdullah Financial District, when it launched. It lacked a distinct identity as a downtown, and since that realisation, it is now a thriving part of Riyadh’s urban fabric. A place that fails to resonate with its users will eventually fail to generate the returns that justify its cost.

Financial Sustainability

The fourth element of the framework is about financial sustainability, and the Giga-Projects are receiving their fair share of attention. The NEOM project has been significantly curtailed, while the Murabba project has been “shelved.” Publicly funded projects are often financial failures, characterised by low ROI and IRR, yet over time, they can become economic successes, contributing to GDP growth and job creation. Assessing the financial sustainability of these projects is therefore a multi-layered process.

Design & Scale Credibility Gap.
The unprecedented scale and design boldness of Saudi giga-projects were met with deep scepticism in the international real estate community as the underlying assumptions were untested. This was not the first time Saudi Arabia had embarked on such projects. As highlighted earlier, the Economic Cities were a precursor to the current Giga-Projects, yet they have not delivered their intended outcomes. The result: a credibility gap in the underlying delivery capability.

Funding vs Financing.

To reduce the credibility gap and build confidence among global audiences, public finances funded the Giga-Projects to generate initial momentum in their delivery. This reassured capital providers, and conversations started around potential investment opportunities. However, the question remained as to whether the Giga-Projects could operate within the framework and principles followed by private capital. Giga-projects, accordingly, were transferred to the Public Investment Fund (PIF), the country’s sovereign wealth fund (SWF). This created the platform for these projects to transition from funding to financing. Despite this, capital providers are still reluctant given the quantum needed. For many, even a small ticket size is likely to disrupt their risk-return balance, starving these projects of much-needed capital, even if a single asset is part of the investment focus. We have seen this unfold in King Abdullah Economic City (KAEC). An exceptionally built commercial real estate district with stunning views overlooking the Red Sea, where you can have lunch by the shoreline and be back in for your 3 PM meeting. On paper, the asset generated sufficient investment interest for institutional investors, but it suffered from sustained demand generation within the City, showing that single-asset investments leave returns exposed to ecosystem risks.

The Opex.
The Giga-projects are designed to achieve an iconic status. In the architectural world, iconic status is achieved when a building is recognised by its outline, and the Giga-Projects are achieving this via their scale. This translates into specialised operations & maintenance, inflating costs and eroding Net Operating Income (NOI), reducing the asset’s attractiveness to global capital markets, thereby hindering the transition from funding to financing.

Time Horizon.
Returns from Giga-projects are realised over ultra-long time horizons. As time horizons elongate, the volatility of underlying factors increases. In comparison, time horizons for general capital providers are much shorter, creating a misalignment and preventing them from making long-term commitments. The situation is further complicated when phases within the overall giga-project keep on missing their milestone dates.

Our direct experience with Giga-Projects informs our view on the financial sustainability of such projects. These projects will require a strong financial recalibration; otherwise, financial unsustainability is inevitable, as shown by Neom’s The Line. Delayed projects show the initial symptoms of a system in need of substantial financial recalibration. Such projects can achieve their social goals while being a social drag. This isn’t a failure of vision, but of the underlying financial system. We believe the right way to achieve this financial recalibration requires both a design response and an organisational one; the latter is addressed in a future article.

Inclusive and Holistic Design

The last component of the framework, holistic design, goes beyond the visual nature of the built environment. Giga-projects have immense potential to transform populations, unlock economic segments, create community cohesion, reinforce cultural contexts, and other aspects. A design process that excludes these realities produces assets that are technically impressive but socially brittle.

Design Process.
Holistic design begins with a simple premise: places are systems, not objects. They succeed when independent artefacts, such as urban mobility, environmental goals, socio-economic outcomes, and others, are integrated into one functioning system. This requires a multidisciplinary design methodology informed by user experiences and continuous feedback from investors, designers, operators, end customers, economists, policymakers, and other stakeholders to realise the vision, much like the distinct instruments of an orchestra converging to create a symphony. The issue is not one of capability but of contextual understanding, specifically, whether design teams have sufficient familiarity with on-the-ground realities to make informed decisions. A walkable experience is a core requirement for most master plans in response to rising environmental concerns. However, how do you design, at scale, a project that encourages walking in the Saudi heat? You can create cooled walkways as seen in Qatari developments, but would they be sustainable for Saudi Arabia’s scale? There are no easy answers, but they must be confronted during design, not discovered during operation.

Cultural Grounding.
Significant regional diversity exists in Saudi Arabia concerning the built environment. Its regions exhibit distinct urban patterns, motifs, and architectural features that reflect the culture of their respective localities. A Giga-Project or a placemaking project should integrate such designs into the built environment. The buildings of Jeddah’s historic downtown were built around rawashin, intricately crafted wooden latticework balconies providing ventilation, shade, and a view of the street below without being seen. This cultural logic exists across regions, each carrying its own spatial traditions: the Rawashins of Jeddah, the Najdi mud architecture of Riyadh, or the Palm tree outlines for Ahsa. The Saudi Architectural Standards formally recognise this diversity, mandating that it be designed into the built environment rather than treated as optional decoration. For Saudi Arabia, it is about regional representation in an equitable manner. Global design firms treat these features as styling rather than substance, creating designs that look Saudi but don’t feel it.
It demands sensitivity to local culture and social patterns, recognising that global best practice must be adapted, not imported.

Design Dividend.
When design is both inclusive and holistic, it becomes a force multiplier for the entire value chain. It reduces long‑term operational costs, strengthens community legitimacy, and enhances the project’s ability to attract talent, investment, and tourism. Most importantly, it aligns the physical environment with the project’s strategic intent, ensuring that the built form reinforces - rather than contradicts - the economic and cultural narrative. While much of Saudi’s built environment is under construction, two examples illustrate the importance of holistic design.
Firstly, upon its initial opening, King Abdullah Financial District opened with a limited offering, predominantly office buildings unable to attract the everyday visitor.
It was beautifully designed, and aesthetics were on par with, if not exceeding, similar financial districts across the globe. However, it failed to connect with average visitors as it lacked experiences designed for them, creating a disconnect. Deliberate interventions by introducing retail, dining, and public programming transformed the perception among Riyadh’s residents. The result: a place where everyone wants to be.
Secondly, Roshn’s communities have generated significant positive interest, a testament to their integrated designs. They were designed around the rhythms of Saudi family life by integrating mosques, schools, retail, and appropriately scaled housing, generating demand that exceeded expectations and demonstrating the strength of inclusive and holistic design.

Inclusive and holistic design is critical to the success of Giga-Projects, and it is not a stylistic choice. It is the mechanism that integrates the components above, turning vision into reality. Currently, the Giga-Projects are in various stages of development, making a definitive ecosystem-level assessment of whether inclusive and holistic design has been achieved premature. An individual assessment, however, is possible, but cannot be captured in the scope of this article. Each project warrants its own dedicated analysis, and that is precisely where we intend to go next.

Concluding Thoughts

At the time of writing, the regional conflict remains ongoing, and its longer-term implications are still unfolding. Rather than reacting to the situation as it stands today, our analysis is grounded in the structural frameworks underpinning the real estate ecosystem, frameworks that are intended to hold regardless of how the geopolitical picture resolves. The intent is to treat this as the first checkpoint in an ongoing assessment, returning to it over time to see how the sector’s trajectory tracks against what’s outlined here.

Ten years in, the Saudi Giga-Projects pass the test that matters most at the outset: they are well-visioned and correctly aligned with economic diversification. Their vulnerability lies elsewhere. Placemaking has been pursued global-first and local-second, and the financial architecture beneath the projects has not kept pace with their ambition. Iconic scale carries permanent operational costs, and ultra-long horizons sit uneasily with private capital. With much of the built environment still under construction, there is a window to recalibrate. That means a design response that grounds places in Saudi lived experience, and an organisational response that we will address in our next article. The shift required is from building objects that capture the world’s attention to cultivating ecosystems that capture long-term value.

The Financial Times’ article last month, presents a very negative outlook about the UAE. Their representation characterises a population on the verge of leaving the UAE and, by extension, paints a doom-and-gloom picture of the economy.
Conversely, Bloomberg’s April article views this as a temporary event, noting that the underlying marketing fundamentals are strong and resilient.
The prevailing market data suggests that capital remains committed to the region.

The divergence between the UAE’s globalised, sentiment-driven market and Saudi Arabia’s state-led, domestic-growth model creates two risk profiles responding differently to the regional crises. We analyse the potential impact on the real estate asset class ecosystem for these two countries.

Residential Sector: Resilience and Flight

The residential sector is the first one to brace the impact, but the potential outcome requires an understanding on the underlying demographics.
The UAE has a population of around 12 million, mainly expatriate and the demand driver for rental and sales markets. At times of geopolitical tension, a “flight-to-safety” sentiment is created disrupting the owner-occupier equilibrium prompting potential actions to move capital towards perceived safer locations. While a real estate crash is unlikely, a dip in rental performance, cooling of sales, and “panic selling” are inevitable. If the war prolongs, it might trigger a potential policy response where the UAE may implement fiscal controls to control capital flows to mitigate economic volatility.

Conversely, the KSA residential market, catering to a population of 35.3 million, operates on different fundamentals. Demand is generated by a large (20 million), locally rooted demographic base operates on a “buy-to-live” culture insulating the sector from the transient sentiment and external shocks. While Saudi nationals do rent properties for living, the main demand is generated by the 15 million expatriate population calling Saudi their primary home. Many of them rarely go back to their home countries.

The regional conflict is unlikely to deter local buyers from acquiring properties or creating a “flight-to-safety” sentiment. In fact, the recent opening of the real estate market to foreigners (non-resident and resident purchasers) has created significant interest, and is likely to increase capital flows, as this demographic would like to call Saudi their “home” and this route enables it.

The analysis suggests the UAE residential sector should be seen with a cautious eye in the short and medium term, whereas the KSA residential sector is positive in the long-term.

Office Sector: Talent Hubs and HQs

The office market is linked with the movement of human capital and corporate strategy, cemented with humans calling a place “home”.
The UAE’s office sector has been propped by a series of initiatives such as the Golden Visa, relaxed business regulations facilitating company formation, and (the main one) 0% income tax. According to Savills’ Q1 2026 UAE Office report, around 72,000 companies were formed in 2025, with 26% in Q4-2025.
These small businesses require office space needed to cement their presence and conduct operations, demand is coming form the low end of the size spectrum, as seen in the figure below.

Business formations growth will likely continue as talent and companies seeking to leverage the favourable tax regime. The war, however, is going to introduce a “wait-and-see” concerning their on-shore physical presence impacting office absorption, probably a cautious time for office investors.

While the UAE’s office absorption is a bottom-up phenomenon driven by tax-sensitive SMEs, Saudi Arabia’s office demand is a top-down mandate driven by the Regional HQ Initiative and state-led economic transformation--that is structurally different. The large local population is being “upskilled” alongside international experts to carry forward the work on economic transformation through projects capitalised by the Public Investment Fund (PIF). These projects require office space to realise their objectives, and thus PIF creates the demand.

On the supply side, they are also building giga-projects and smaller real estate-based projects, all which have the commercial real estate as an asset class to improve viability, thus creating supply. The key point: their demand and supply factors are localised and less reliant on global talent patterns as it is a closed-loop system insulated from global patterns. Furthermore, they have ramped up their focus on business localisation, creating opportunities for SMEs to bid for contracts enabling growth and expansion, and coupled with the Regional HQ Initiative mandating major companies to relocate their businesses and staff to Saudi, if they are awarded a contract.

The analysis suggests the UAE faces short-term headwinds in the office sector, but long-term the market fundamentals are still robust driven by the tax regime, excellent international connectivity, and a unparalleled lifestyle. While Saudi Arabia is unlikely to face significant short-term headwinds, its long-term outlook remains, comparatively, advantageous.

Commercial and Hospitality: The Tourism Paradox

The most visible impact of the conflict is undoubtedly in the commercial and hospitality sectors, a bedrock for both countries.

In the UAE, the reliance on international tourism makes this sector vulnerable.
The disruptions in the air space have already impacted flight patterns significantly reducing tourism numbers, creating downward pressure on retail and hospitality performance. Investors should be prepared for a period of negative returns, and it would not be surprising to see asset values tumble as the market responds.
Write-downs in these asset classes are a distinct possibility, and leveraged assets are likely to miss their debt covenants.

In contrast, Saudi has a unique tourism sector built up of two demand patterns.
Firstly, the hospitality & leisure sector offers a healthy mix of global style tourist destinations and places accentuating local culture & tradition, both of which, were invisible to the international tourists. Secondly, Islamic tourism has long attracted a consistent flow of pilgrims from across the globe. Headwinds in the leisure tourism can be offset by Islamic Tourism (non-discretionary demand), as air-travel links are largely operational on the Western side and Pilgrims can be encouraged to travel domestically to tour around rest of the country.

While the UAE’s hospitality sector is highly sensitive to discretionary leisure travel and global flight patterns, Saudi Arabia benefits from a dual-demand structure. The non-discretionary nature of Islamic tourism provides a structural buffer that keeps assets operational even when leisure travel fluctuates.

Giga-Projects: The Oil Price Variable

Perhaps the most discussed aspect of the Saudi real estate ecosystem are its Giga-Projects, primarily funded by Government and sensitive to the oil price movements.
If the conflict prolongs it might lead to increased defence spending diverting capital away from Giga-Projects. Consequently, some delays in the delivery of these projects are to be expected.

However, the outlook is not entirely pessimistic. Should oil prices remain above the fiscal break-even threshold of the Giga-Project portfolio, the resulting fiscal headroom could provide the necessary capital to sustain project momentum despite the geopolitical climate. The resilience of these giga-projects will ultimately depend on the government’s ability to balance fiscal discipline with the strategic imperative of economic diversification.

Conclusion

The impact of the current conflict on the Middle Eastern real estate ecosystem is not monolithic. The UAE and KSA are responding to these pressures through different mechanisms: the UAE through the lens of global capital and transient sentiment, and KSA through the lens of domestic demographic growth and strategic state-led investment. For the property investor, the takeaway is clear: while the UAE market may face short-term volatility and a potential correction in commercial and hospitality valuations, the KSA market offers a more insulated, albeit project-dependent, growth trajectory. The current environment necessitates a shift in strategy: moving from a ‘one-size-fits-all’ Middle East allocation to a nuanced approach balancing country-specific factors.

Disclaimer: this is an analytical/opinion piece and should not be construed as investment advice regarding these asset classes.

Originally published in the Summer 2026 Edition of Property Chronicle, accessible at https://heyzine.com/flip-book/4fd9c21e00.html#page/52

Undercover Academic’s (UA) recent teaching excursion left a lasting and positive impression by real estate development projects of Saudi Arabia executed under the banner of “Vision 2030”—a socio-economic transformation program. Its key themes are developing ‘a vibrant society’, ‘a thriving nation’, and ‘an ambitious nation’. The latter focuses on creating new non-oil-based economic sectors that contribute towards the economy. Headline-grabbing real estate projects such as Neom and Qiddiya are leading the charge, but more subtle and focused projects such as Saudi Downtown Centre Company aiming to revitalise town centres of secondary cities into meaningful places of community cohesion.

As someone with almost two decades of experience encompassing both international work and contributions within Saudi Arabia, I’ve had the privilege of undertaking strategic organizational transformation and investment deals under the Vision 2030 environment, experiencing first-hand the positivity, dynamism, and enthusiasm about the future.

The anticipated outcomes include diversification of asset classes, growth in platform asset managers, and a proliferation of real estate-focused funds.

Asset Class Diversification

Vision 2030 is reshaping Saudi Arabia’s real estate sector traditionally focused on residential, commercial, and hospitality. Government programs like “National Industrial Development & Logistics” and “Invest Saudi” are actively driving investment towards emerging asset classes such as industrial zones, integrated logistics parks, and data centres. Such asset classes are spearheaded by a dedicated organization under the Vision umbrella. NEOM, for instance, is leading the charge in data centres, renewable energy infrastructure, and advanced manufacturing hubs (e.g. Oxagon), utilising sovereign capital to establish these sectors and attract subsequent private investment. This is in addition to NEOM developing new ultra-luxurious sustainable tourist destinations. This diversification suggests that Saudi Arabia’s key asset classes may soon resemble those identified in the ULI Emerging Real Estate Trends (Europe) 2025 report.

In my experience, three asset classes stand out as particularly promising in Saudi Arabia’s evolving real estate landscape:

• Data Centers: As the Kingdom enters the global AI race with ambitions to become a leading hub (link), data center development and operations is poised for growth.

• Hotels: The burgeoning tourism sector is fueling a hospitality boom, with projections of approximately 320,000 new hotel keys by 2030 (link).

• Advanced Manufacturing Facilities: While still in its early stages, this sector, spearheaded by Alat (link), holds considerable potential for future expansion. An early prototype of this asset class was the industrial zone located in King Abdullah Economic City (KAEC).

Platform Asset Managers

Saudi Arabia’s Asset Management is relatively nascent compared to the more mature and established market of the UK and US, but it holds immense potential waiting to be realised. The gap between the two countries, in terms of the number of active asset managers, has widened over the past two decades, highlighting the greater competition within the UK market (the US leads the charge with ~16,000 firms).

However, this disparity also underscores the considerable real-estate

backed opportunities available in Saudi Arabia, particularly given the value of these projects is exceeds US$ 1 Trillion (link). The combined AUM’s of the country’s asset managers stands at $0.2 Trillion, whereas the UK has $7.8 Trillion.

Once these assets are completed, the Public Investment Fund (PIF) will explore exit strategies to capitalize on their investments. This will attract international and established players, creating a competitive dynamic between local and international firms. The type of capital accessed by the Asset Manager will determine their successes, and patient capital will play a positive role. Currently, many existing players in the Saudi market originate from the banking sector, often removed from the intense operational realities of real estate. True value creation in real estate stems from operational expertise, a strength often found in investor-operators, an area of potential expansion for the Asset Managers.

REITS or Funds?

Finally, the substantial volume of real assets in Saudi Arabia is expected to drive a shift towards fund structures. Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs), a regime established in the UK in 2007 and introduced in Saudi Arabia nearly a decade later, presents a natural pathway for this transition.

After an initial surge in listings following the introduction of the REIT regime in Saudi Arabia, interest has seemingly waned. This could be attributed to the extensive compliance requirements and broader REIT-specific challenges, similar to those experienced in the UK market (link). While one avenue (REITs) has experienced limited traction, another (private funds) has shown remarkable growth. Despite limited information on the asset class composition of these funds, it underscores a potential exit arena.

Future Outlook

Saudi Arabia’s ambitious real estate transformation is generating considerable excitement and appears poised to reshape the nation’s economy.
While attracting financial capital is crucial for sustaining this diversification, it’s equally vital to consider the long-term human impact.
These projects will become part of the legacy inherited by future generations, shaping their identity and lived experience.
Therefore, financial decisions must prioritize the well-being and cultural heritage of the Saudi people.

Originally published in the Spring 2025 issue of the Property Chronicle, accessible at https://heyzine.com/flip-book/1250454fc7.html#page/42.

Understanding the Three Value Chains

Each chain operates on a distinct logic, and understanding that distinction makes the tensions that follow legible.

Each chain creates value differently:

• Investment focuses on raising the required capital through appropriate structures such as direct equity-based investments, debt structures, revenue-sharing agreements, joint-development partnerships, BOT/BOOT structures, and others. In publicly funded projects, the primary objective is often to minimise public equity injections.

• Development focuses on transforming raw land into the desired vision captured within the master plan, underpinned by placemaking and community enrichment principles.

• Asset Management focuses on optimising performance while preserving long-term capital and social asset value.

Each value chain reveals nuances missed at the surface, and in pursuit of the common goal, the chains create internal frictions. The image below shows prototypical sub-value chains within giga-projects built from my experience working on such projects.
Each project fine-tunes the sub-value chain to meet its immediate requirements.

The responsibility for asset exits may lie with either the investments or the asset management team, depending on the organisational context. In the illustration above, I’ve assigned this function to the asset management team, as it fits with the overall evolution of Giga-Projects as they transition from development to perpetual operations. While investment teams may also be involved in certain cases, I’ve limited their scope here to capital raising and portfolio management.

Misalignments Across Value Chains

Naturally, giga-projects focus heavily on developments, as the initial phase converts raw land to a built environment, and through it, a vision becomes a reality. Yet, the intersection of these sub–value chains is rarely seamless; each operates with its own drivers, creating areas of tension and misalignment. I highlight such misalignments with two examples below:

Example 1 — In practice, development teams often prioritise on-time completion.
Once funding is secured, they move ahead with construction plans to break ground.
Execution is the first core activity in realising the vision. In pursuit of achieving timely completion, development teams may operate almost entirely independently with limited coordination across investment or asset management teams. The misalignment ripples across the commercial outcomes of the other value chains.
For example, development teams will construct assets without exploring options such as capital raising, joint-development agreements, 3rd party developments governed through specifications, and others.

Example 2 — Decisions made during design and construction frequently overlook their long-term operational impact. Asset Management teams possess significant knowledge of asset operations to materially improve Net Operating Income (NOI) when the asset starts operating. Development teams rarely carry that depth of operational knowledge, and even when asset management input is available, delivery pressures or organisational immaturity mean it goes unheeded.

The examples above are illustrative and do not capture the full extent.
In my experience, the misalignments can be categorised into 3 broad areas:

1. Strategic Focus: Each value chain measures success differently. Investment focuses on capital deployment and returns; development focuses on time, cost, and quality; asset management focuses on efficiency and value maximisation.

2. Operational Procedures & Toolkits: The tools and data used by each team rarely align. Insights buried in reports and schedules are condensed into Excel models for investment analysis, which often fail to reflect the operational realities later faced by asset management.

3. Team Composition: Development and asset management teams tend to be specialised by asset class, whereas investment teams operate across asset types. The result is a structural mismatch in how decisions are made and who is consulted.

Due to these misalignments, we are seeing problems manifest across the Saudi Giga-Projects, and I am sure they have historically existed in previous global giga-projects.
The misalignments are structural, and so is the solution.

Integrated Isolation: Balancing Independence & Alignment

Through experience, I have found that the solution lies in what I call integrated isolation. An organisational design feature that separates yet connects by creating three independent units (Investment, Development and Asset Management), each with its own leadership, strategic focus, KPIs, and toolkits. This achieves the isolation: allowing each unit to specialise, operate, and innovate within its own value chain. The remaining challenge lies in achieving effective integration across these units. Unlike traditional group structures that rely on hierarchical reporting lines and shared KPIs that blur strategic focus, integrated isolation preserves true autonomy within a framework of shared outcomes. Each unit retains freedom to act entrepreneurially, yet remains strategically aligned through a focused executive governance layer that synchronises their efforts. All three units receive the master plan upfront, with a focus on their area:

• Investment develops capital strategies for funding phases and asset exits.

• Development executes according to its own programme.

• Asset Management builds early operational and maintenance strategies for each asset class.

Coordination happens not through daily interdepartmental reporting, but through a governance layer — a focused executive committee receiving progress and feedback at regular intervals. This ensures each unit remains agile while contributing to shared project outcomes, while also clarifying lifecycle ownership. For instance, investment exits, traditionally managed by the investment function, would transition to Asset Management once projects stabilise. This ensures continuity beyond early investment phases and embeds long-term stewardship into the value chain.

Outcomes: Flexibility, Efficiency, and Socio-Economic Impact

Each unit operates independently, free from the inertia of large organisations.
As development plans evolve, investment and asset management can adapt in parallel, rather than reactively.
It also ensures these departments are scaled up and scaled down at the appropriate points in the project’s life cycle.
For asset management in particular, it enables early preparation for scaling operations as assets come online — bridging the very gap that once caused friction across the value chains. Integrated isolation gives giga-projects something rare at their scale: the ability to adapt without fracturing.

Placemaking is emerging as an innovative concept in real estate capturing the attention of players across the real estate spectrum. Its power to transform forgotten spaces into vibrant experiences holds immense potential. Over the last 15 years, I have had the pleasure to work and research the impact of such projects. Projects as challenging as creating a new city, to a place of religious cohesion humbling the soul. Placemaking appears as a recent phenomenon, but it is embedded within a rich history.

The passing of the New Towns Act (1946) in post-war Britain laid the foundations for placemaking as the country sought to recover and craft a new identity. Four decades later, Britain unveiled Canary Wharf its first successful placemaking experiment, and since has made a permanent impact on London’s skyline, one that is incomplete in any visual. In the last 25 years, Britain has refined its expertise in placemaking by delivering large projects such as Stratford, Kings Cross, Battersea, and Earls Court. Built upon its past successes, Britain has embarked on a journey of regeneration of town centres to catalyse economic and social development. Recently, placemaking has entered a new arena—the Middle East. Projects such as Burj Khalifa, Dubai Mall, NEOM, Qiddiya, Diriyah Gate, and Red Sea are experimenting with bold designs, experiential spaces, and technologies capturing global headlines and the attention of stakeholders.

Sovereign wealth funds and investors back these projects while presenting opportunities for portfolio diversification and economic and social development. In 2020, Brookfield, through its partnership with the Investment Corporation of Dubai, diversified into a location undergone placemaking, DIFC, and four years later exited a large stake. Similarly, Battersea facilitated Malaysian government-backed investment managers to gain exposure to Britain’s real estate assets. Placemaking empowered the movement between East to West, and West to East and works before projects are completed. Saudi Arabia’s Asset Management space grew by six times, with strong spill-over effects and many opportunities for other players. Early research using econometric models has suggested a link between real-estate asset classes.

For operators, placemaking provides new avenues for growth and revenue generation leveraging their specialist skill set. The burgeoning tourism industry across the Middle East has attracted multiple hospitality operators, with operators redefining traditional sub-sectors conforming to the place while enhancing the value proposition. While British retail-centric projects have propelled property managers to have streamlined operations and lean cost structures. Additionally, utilising operators’ expertise during project conceptualisation ensures cost-efficient operations. Early anecdotal evidence from placemaking projects in the Middle East, is seldom considered leading to ROI Impacts.

The most profound impact of placemaking projects is their ability to revitalise and enrich communities. Facilitating community collaboration and cohesion through experiential spaces focused on leisure and culture. Projects such as Kings Cross and King Salman Park aim to provide such spaces and reposition a city’s centre. Considering ageing real estate stock, placemaking presents a platform to challenge to rethink our approach to urban design, which is more sustainable, inclusive, and experiential. Whether placemaking is achieved through urban regeneration or greenfield development, its legacy is lasting economic and social progress.

Placemaking projects are large, and complex faced with financial and environmental sustainability challenges. Recently, The Line cut back on its ambition indicating early funding challenges supplemented with the growing scrutiny around its sustainability. Increasingly, there is a need for an integrated approach to planning and executing placemaking projects. Moreover, the fulfilment of socio-economic goals is seldom discussed and requires greater attention and accountability.

Despite these challenges, an area undergone placemaking imbues a different energy filled with optimism, enthusiasm, and revitalisation embodying the motto “from neglection to reflection.” Reflecting a community’s perseverance to be better and look towards the future. More is needed to develop an integrated approach, as Placemaking plays a role in revitalising and developing the cities of tomorrow.

Originally published at https://www.propertychronicle.com/the-art-of-placemaking/

Giga-projects are a new real estate category underpinned by traditional and new asset classes that are interconnected in the service of national strategic objectives. At times, and wrongfully, they are categorised under “urban regeneration”, and I disagree with such a categorisation. While they transform the surrounding urban landscape, they embody the sovereign ambitions to achieve national objectives. The latter separates them from mainstream urban regeneration projects. Giga-projects are their own category and orchestrate different entities, as illustrated in my last article (link), and the central challenge is delivering them with coherence.

Challenge

A key challenge in Giga-Projects is translating the vision into reality--that is, what was envisioned is executed. It is inevitable for such projects to drift under the weight of execution. The short-term focus on delivery milestones starts to dilute the vision, creating a sense of disconnect, and in the absence of a coherent framework, tactical activities satisfy short-term requirements but expose the long-term. This article focuses on a framework of strategic components that must exist for giga-projects to be successful, built from my direct experience with such projects.

Framework

The framework has 5 elements that, working together, ensure better outcomes.

1. An Anchoring Vision--What future are we trying to create?

2. Socio-economic Outcomes--Will it provide benefits in the future?

3. Placemaking--Are our traditions, culture, and beliefs embedded in this future?

4. Financial Sustainability--How can this be a net-positive contributor?

5. Inclusive and holistic design--Does our design incorporate the above?

A diagrammatic outline is shown below.

An Anchoring Vision

Giga-Projects have ambitious, expressive, and futuristic visions, and considerable effort goes into articulating the desired end state. It is extremely difficult, however, to find any interim visions describing the project 5, 10, or 15 years after its announcement, even a simple description of the state of the infrastructure. Such descriptions need to exist as the vision acts as a common banner for action. As different organisations develop their execution plans, the presence of such defined states minimises the risk of vision dilution. The short-term focus disconnects the organisations from the long-term vision, which can lead to sub-optimal outcomes.

For example, a smart city powered by AI and the latest cutting-edge technology requires a larger ecosystem that provides access to talent, device manufacturing, and strong connectivity infrastructure, among other things. An organisation developing such a strategy will focus on delivering on its own workstream without accounting for the broader ecosystem dependencies. The question should be seen as a reflection rather than a constraint, as enabling systems may require substantial improvement before a vision is realised.

Socio-economic Outcomes

Socio-economic outcomes such as GDP contribution, job creation, new economic sectors, regional development, home ownership, skills development, and others are the second element of the Giga-project strategy. The orientation of these metrics reveals the underlying priorities. For example, if home ownership is key, vision documents and relevant Giga-Project corporate documents will explicitly mention pre and post-states.

Most Giga-projects have detailed metrics on the attained socio-economic outcomes at the time of the vision, but are drowned under the weight of execution pressure. Missed milestones generate more debate than slipping socio-economic targets. The former are visible and measurable; the latter drift quietly, unnoticed until the damage is done.
Countering such behaviours requires continuously anchoring decisions in socio-economic outcomes beside financial metrics. Otherwise, the Giga-Project distils to a construction project doing a great disservice to the national strategy of economic transformation.

One approach is to assign weights to financial and socio-economic metrics, with decisions made on the overall score. Such analysis can operate across multiple scales: giga-project master plan, phase, district, and asset-level. Each unit contributes to the overall socio-economic metrics. At higher levels of aggregation, the link between outcome and contribution is direct—that is, the completion of a master plan drives job growth. Similarly, at lower levels the link shifts to indirect as they contribute to an overall objective such as job growth.

Placemaking

A critical aspect for giga-projects is providing “meaning” to a place, that is, giving people a reason to belong to it. It requires a thorough understanding of the local culture, heritage, and values of its people. Imported foreign values can provide an initial momentum to the project, but a place lasts when it is grounded in local customs.

Giga-projects should act as amplifiers, and not substitutes, by preserving the authenticity of the local culture and heritage. Creating a place, however, requires time and curation. A project has a defined start and end, but a place endures over time. The Pyramids, Colosseum, and Eiffel Tower are examples of a giga-project becoming a place. In London, the regeneration around Kings Cross has added another place with meaning. While predominantly residential, the anchoring of retail and restaurants around the historic coal yard gives meaning to the place.
Coal was an energy source powering the city, and today, the restaurants, retail, and major office occupiers are powering the area.

For Giga-Projects to endure, they must embed placemaking principles throughout their project lifecycle, creating a lasting connection with their people.

Financial Sustainability

Arguably, financial sustainability is the most discussed aspect of Giga-Projects, and their impact is reduced to a handful of financial metrics such as total spend (often in billions of dollars), IRRs (Internal Rate of Return), or Return on Equity (ROE). We have already argued for broadening the definition of financial sustainability. The focal challenge for Giga-Projects lies in the underlying assumptions. With limited public information, it is difficult to determine the expected return requirements from such projects.

If we assume, however, they would have typical return requirements (i.e. IRRs of >12%), the underlying financial models are developed to support the return expectations, whereas future market conditions may not support those expectations. The result: spiralling budgets, delayed completion timelines, and other issues lead to a comprehensive project rationalisation and prioritisation, with some being entirely cancelled. The long time horizons necessitate continuous updates to financial projections, grounding Giga-Projects in market realities. The reliance on outdated financial models and investment cases should be challenged the moment the first shovel breaks ground.

Assumptions are one side of the financial equation: strong product-market fit is the other. We define product-market fit as strong alignment between the end-product and market requirements, evidenced by the willingness of external capital to participate. We have seen, generally, that Giga-Projects demonstrate strong product-market fit driven by underlying national priorities. Large-scale urban regeneration projects in the UK, which I consider Giga-Projects, cater to the residential and office demand, strongly aligned with investor expectations. Saudi Giga-Projects, similarly, are driven by economic transformation resulting in expansion and creation of new economic sectors, and their product-market fit remains to be fully tested.

Giga-Projects require continuously updated information to assess their sustainability and create strong alignment between their offering and market expectations.
In the absence of such steps, Giga-Projects will be considered failed experiments.

Inclusive & Holistic Design

Design is a critical component in giga-projects, and it is broader than its architectural definition. It is a crucial mechanism through which all components are integrated harmoniously. Such designs also reflect the orientation of the Giga-Project.
For example, Giga-Projects inclined toward financial results will require designs maximising revenue-generating spaces to achieve the targeted returns. Conversely, socially focused projects will dedicate space to culture, heritage or other types of spaces.

In our view, design acts as the final gate, ensuring socio-economic outcomes, financial sustainability, and placemaking elements are aligned to the underlying vision. After which, design should focus on its architectural spirit to reflect all three elements. Designs, unfortunately, often remain within the architectural realm, creating disconnects between idealism and reality. Design requires a multi-faceted view (social, economic, sustainable, financial, and others) to create a successful giga-project. It should be led by those responsible for delivering the Giga-Project, ensuring the design brief is accountable to all five elements before a single line is drawn.

Concluding thoughts

These five components form an integrative framework to create a balanced giga-project. Overlooking any of these components creates the risk of misalignment, cost overruns, and poor outcomes for stakeholders. Successful giga-projects must embody vision, embed value, and endure over time. They should be constantly assessed against this framework to minimise drift.

Giga-projects are no longer just about skyline statements or infrastructure scale.
They are now the centrepiece of national transformation strategies — instruments to reshape economies, societies, and futures.
Since Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 announcement, these multi-decade, multi-billion-dollar undertakings have redefined the role of real estate, from a sector to a system of national consequence.

Aspirations

Giga-Projects deploy various forms of real estate—land, buildings, infrastructure, and place—as the preferred mechanism to realise national goals. For example, the presence of residential assets ensures a liveability-focused project providing vital housing. Similarly, the presence of various industries aims to generate economic activity, leading to job creation.

Behind the branding, governments pursue giga-projects for three reasons.

1. Economic Diversification & Growth. They act as conduits to grow the economy by investing in untapped sectors, such as tourism, advanced manufacturing, and tech.

2. Social Cohesion and Reinforcement. They create spaces where culture, heritage, and identity are expressed and reinforced. It is a cultural legacy built through intentional placemaking, not inherited by accident.

3. Anchoring the Future. They anchor a vision of the future in the present, creating positivity and bringing the possibilities of tomorrow today. The Diriyah Project in Riyadh (Saudi Arabia) is a perfect example.

Fundamentally, every giga-project is a scaled real-estate system reflecting and executing national goals. Understanding how that system works — and who drives it — is what separates projects that deliver from those that drift.

Giga Project Domain Navigation

Giga-projects engage with real estate as an interplay of multiple industries — construction, finance, urban planning, property operations, regulation and more. Each brings its own objectives, capabilities, and power dynamics, forming a domain unique in its scale, complexity, and national importance. They must reconcile public sector vision with private sector execution. They must navigate land use constraints, attract investment, enable infrastructure, and shape socio-economic outcomes — all at an extraordinary scale and within rigid timelines. In this reframing, real estate is more than just about buildings, but about:

• Managing and controlling the sovereign land bank

• Deploying capital across an ultra-long time horizon (10-20+ years)

• Developing an ecosystem of public-private partners for outcome realisation

• Evolving operating models from development to long-term asset management

• Harmonising multi-product and multi-assets in the existing urban fabric

• Infusing culture, heritage, and purpose through place-based narratives, reinforcing national identity

This domain can be navigated by creating a 2x2 map based on two dimensions:

1. Financial Orientation: Is the player profit-driven or service-oriented

2. Ownership: Is the player government-owned or private?

This yields four broad types of entities:

• Public–Service Oriented (e.g., municipalities)

• Public–Profit Oriented (e.g., sovereign wealth funds)

• Private–Profit Oriented (e.g., developers, contractors)

• Private–Service Oriented (e.g., non-profits or NGOs, less common in giga-projects)

This simple matrix helps identify where a given entity sits in the broader ecosystem and what motivates its behaviour.

Each player operates with its internal logic:

• Developers want to deliver on time and on budget.

• Municipalities want compliance and long-term livability.

• Banks seek creditworthy projects with clear exit strategies.

• Contractors want scope clarity and predictable payments.

• Landowners want asset appreciation and/or utilisation.

These diverging motivations often result in discontinuity — strategic misalignment, scope creep, and reactive problem-solving. In giga-projects, such misalignments can lead to delays, cost overruns, or reputational damage on an international stage. For example, a developer may commit to a launch date driven by political optics, while financing partners are still conducting due diligence. Or a municipality might revise infrastructure requirements mid-project, forcing redesigns. These tensions are not dysfunctions — they are intrinsic to the domain.

Central Player for Giga-Projects: Developer or Asset Manager

Who is the gravitational centre of a giga-project? In early phases, it’s the developer setting the tone for land use, partners, and phasing. However, over time, the developer may evolve into an Asset Manager. This requires a transformation of their operating model, which I intend to cover in a later piece. Alternatively, an existing Asset Manager may be appointed with the long-term focus of optimising yields, performance, and sustainability.

Giga-Projects as Real Estate Playbooks in Disguise

When you look past the branding and vision decks, giga-projects are essentially trying to answer three real estate questions at scale:

1. How do we build new economic sectors aligned with national strategy, utilising giga-projects and real estate as enablers?

2. How can giga-projects act as places of community cohesion, reinforcing cultural values and national identity?

3. How do we ensure real-estate in giga-projects delivers sustainable financial returns to investors?

These are not new questions. But their scale, speed, and strategic gravity in giga-projects require an entirely new playbook. The articles that follow examine each dimension in turn — from strategic design and value chains, to capital structuring, site constraints, and the long-term outcomes that will determine whether these projects deliver on their national promise.