Introduction
Previously, we proposed key elements required for giga-projects to achieve successful outcomes: an anchoring vision; a focus on socio-economic outcomes; placemaking; financial sustainability; and inclusive & holistic design. We believe addressing these 5 elements correctly leads to better outcomes for Giga-Projects themselves and positively impacts society at large. Giga-Projects are scaled real estate ecosystems, and Saudi Arabia is leading the charge by pioneering them. In this article, we analyse Saudi Giga-Projects using our framework.
Saudi Giga-Projects: A Recap
Saudi Arabia’s economic transformation programme (Vision 2030) turns 10 in April 2026. The programme aims to diversify the economy away from oil and position Saudi Arabia as a global economic player. Giga-projects are one facet of realising this goal.
Saudi Arabia’s Giga-Projects ecosystem is split between iconic and foundational projects. Iconic projects seek to redefine Saudi Arabia and what it means to be Saudi, and NEOM, Qiddiyah, Diriyah, The Red Sea, and Al-Ula are leading the charge. These foundational projects are creating new sectors and catalysing existing sectors. The Rig, Jeddah Central, Sports Boulevard, Murabba, Soudah, Rua Al Madinah, King Salman Gate, King Salman Park and others are all actively contributing towards economic diversification.
Real estate underpins these projects, and after a decade, a reassessment is on the horizon, with some already underway (see here and here).
This has provided the opportunity to apply our framework to understand the underlying issues.
Key Elements
An anchoring Vision, socio-economic outcomes, placemaking, financial sustainability and holistic & inclusive design are five components of our framework. We view the Giga-Projects through these 5 elements/perspectives to better understand these real estate ecosystems.
Anchoring Vision
Vision 2030 outlines three key themes encompassing the economic transformation programme, which are (i) A Vibrant Society; (ii) A Thriving Economy; (iii) An Ambitious Nation. The three themes reveal a pattern of interdependence that supports the overall goal. It begins with building a strong community by putting principles of religious, cultural, psychological, and social well-being into practice. This leads to the second aspect, building ‘a thriving Economy’ by providing jobs through various endeavours such as new economic sectors, evolving existing sectors to attract institutional investments, and a business-friendly regulatory environment. Collectively, these two aspects aim to build ‘an ambitious nation’ engaged in creating an inclusive and collective future.
Steady progress across metrics has been shown in the 2024 Annual Update of Vision 2030. A detailed review of the web pages shows the programme’s direct and indirect interconnectedness, guiding readers to conclude that these projects are well-visioned—meaning they are appropriately positioned to serve as delivery mechanisms for the 3 core themes.
The Giga-Projects are not Saudi Arabia’s first experiment with real estate as an economic engine; rather, from our perspective, this is the third wave. Wave 1 began in the mid-1970s, when Saudi Arabia, through the creation of the Royal Commission for Jubail and Yanbu, established industrial clusters to support the growing petrochemical industry. Wave 2 began in the mid-2000s with the conceptualisation of the Economic Cities to supplement the economic corridor comprising Jeddah, Riyadh, and Khobar/Dammam. The ECs were, in essence, the first multidisciplinary attempt to use real estate to generate economic value by combining private-sector involvement with placemaking, and a relaxed regulatory framework to achieve economic diversification. Since 2016, the Giga-Projects represent Wave 3 and are markedly different. For the first time, national development is anchored in a vision of the future. From the 1970s until the late 90s, Saudi Arabia produced five-year development plans that allocated public spending across different sectors, creating an impression of incremental development that included real estate. This wave carries with it a broad set of social parameters looking to redefine and reposition Saudi Arabia’s society.
We may not possess the extensive capabilities of the Saudi Governmental apparatus; however, our experience enables us to conclude that the projects are well-intentioned and correctly aligned with the vision of economic diversification. Therefore, the Giga-Projects perform well against the first component of the framework and withstand scrutiny.
A vision provides the foundations, but strong outcomes supplement it.
Socio-economic Outcomes
The core outcomes of Giga-Projects are: (i) acting as catalysts for existing sectors; (ii) providing a foundation for new sectors; (iii) spreading economic activity across the country; and (iv) a correctly skilled labour force with the right balance of general, specialist, and transferable skills. Giga-projects can influence a broad range of social outcomes due to their scale, including social cohesion through narrative building. We briefly elaborate on these socio-economic outcomes below.
Sector Catalysts and Development.
Saudi giga-projects have catalysed the tourism/hospitality sector of the economy. Previously, economic activity in this sector was limited to Makkah and Madinah, serving religious pilgrims. Since the inception of Giga-Projects, hospitality has expanded as a structured economic sector to secondary cities such as Soudah. Moreover, the Saudi Downtown Company is mandated to develop urban town centres in secondary and tertiary cities to generate economic activity. Real estate and related industries remain a significant part of the economy, and other sectors, such as EV manufacturing, AI, and defence manufacturing, have opened up opportunities for private-sector investment. Entertainment & Leisure, a largely non-existent part of the economy, has seen significant activity and local investments. Projects such as a Boulevard and multiple high-profile sporting events (boxing, Formula 1, and Wrestling) have created supplementary business activity supporting these events.
Labour Skills Development.
Giga-Projects play a critical role in developing labour skills by acting as incubators and accelerators. The attraction of global talent, supplemented by local talent, creates a unique environment for skills exchange. Global designers, investors, developers, operators, and asset managers converge to realise the project, supported by local talent. The result is the transformation of local talent, benefiting the future. We have witnessed this first-hand while working on these projects, where graduate programmes select young talent, match their aspirations with suitable roles, and provide mentoring from international experts. Disciplines such as construction management, project management, finance & accounting, and hospitality operations are just a few that undergo this process, with some achieving full skill localisation. This is a sharp departure from past practices where local workforce were employed to meet quota requirements. The new reality ensures knowledge remains within the economy and upskills future generations. We also see this unfolding in the asset management space, as global asset managers bring their presence and international expertise to the Saudi market, ensuring Giga-Project assets are managed with robust financial discipline.
Spatial Rebalancing.
Giga-projects help redistribute socio-economic activity across regions by creating new activity centres. Saudi Arabia experimented with this when it created King Abdullah Economic City (KAEC) in 2005, a privately developed city spread over 150km^2 to create a new socio-economic centre on the Western side of Saudi Arabia. It was intended to divert new economic activity from Jeddah to KAEC, creating a sub-economic corridor. Giga-Projects also enhance the spatial proposition of existing cities, provided they are correctly integrated into the urban fabric. The creation of Diriyah Gate, Qiddiya, and KAFD provides an early indication of spatial integration as Riyadh transitions into a global city.
Tourism, Culture, and Soft-power Returns.
Giga-project assets are created around an underlying theme or direction, and in Saudi Arabia, this theme is tourism and culture. The selection of these assets reflects Saudi Arabia’s ambition to transform its old identity, which, from a Western perspective, has been associated with oil, tribal society, and archaic traditions, into a new identity centred on its emergence as a global economic powerhouse and player. The projects attract international visitors to experience the cultural fabric of Saudi society, helping to reshape prevailing perceptions. Over time and with repeated visits, a new global identity is created and crystallised.
Narrative Building.
Giga-projects act as a collective reference point for any society. For Saudi Arabia, this translates into developing a consistent cultural narrative and strong national identity as it charts its path into the future. Identity, culture, traditions, beliefs, and aspirations are embedded within real estate assets—a physical manifestation of the narrative. Thus, the narrative is created through diligent curation of experiences and events; Formula 1, boxing events, Golf Tournaments, and community events in Diriyah are examples of this revised narrative. An absent narrative creates a built environment similar to cities—someone else’s story. The narrative of a strong nation existed before 2016; however, it was hidden under the international media’s interpretation of “oil and a closed society”.
Economic outcomes appear to be steadily progressing, but their full achievement has yet to be realised, given that only 10 years have passed since the programme was launched. Micro-scale socio-economic outcomes are being achieved regularly, as demonstrated by Diriyah’s unwavering focus on community programmes that support the local community through initiatives such as preferential recruitment within the Diriyah Region. Similar initiatives are also evident across other giga-projects. Macro-scale socio-economic outcomes, however, remain less clear, as the link between individual projects and broader outcomes remains difficult to establish. We consider the micro-scale achievements substantial in their own right, given the country’s history and the speed at which they have been achieved. Economic progress, however, is only as durable as the places through which it is expressed.
Placemaking
Placemaking is the third element of the framework. It focuses on integrating the Giga-Project with the immediate community, regional & national cultural identity, and transitioning towards a global place. The Saudi Giga-Projects have tackled placemaking in the reverse order. That is, they have focused on becoming a global place and then connecting with the immediate identity. However, a few exceptions exist, such as the Diriyah Gate and Al-Ula projects, which are crafted around their immediate surroundings. This form of placemaking, focused on a global outlook, has achieved notable successes within the region, most notably The Palm and Burj Khalifa in the UAE. Global placemaking creates a built environment that appeals to a global audience but risks becoming disconnected from the local community. The iconic building and its surrounding built environment awe visitors, imparting the false impression that they represent Emirati culture and values, while obscuring the richness of the UAE’s culture. In our view, Saudi Giga-projects run the same risk: creating a built environment that prevents visitors from understanding the depth of Saudi culture and values, while exposing the investments to financial risk. It will create assets devoid of any connection to the local community, leaving visitors with a generic experience that could be replicated anywhere in the world. For a brief period, Saudi Arabia experienced this with King Abdullah Financial District, when it launched. It lacked a distinct identity as a downtown, and since that realisation, it is now a thriving part of Riyadh’s urban fabric. A place that fails to resonate with its users will eventually fail to generate the returns that justify its cost.
Financial Sustainability
The fourth element of the framework is about financial sustainability, and the Giga-Projects are receiving their fair share of attention. The NEOM project has been significantly curtailed, while the Murabba project has been “shelved.” Publicly funded projects are often financial failures, characterised by low ROI and IRR, yet over time, they can become economic successes, contributing to GDP growth and job creation. Assessing the financial sustainability of these projects is therefore a multi-layered process.
Design & Scale Credibility Gap.
The unprecedented scale and design boldness of Saudi giga-projects were met with deep scepticism in the international real estate community as the underlying assumptions were untested. This was not the first time Saudi Arabia had embarked on such projects. As highlighted earlier, the Economic Cities were a precursor to the current Giga-Projects, yet they have not delivered their intended outcomes. The result: a credibility gap in the underlying delivery capability.
Funding vs Financing.
To reduce the credibility gap and build confidence among global audiences, public finances funded the Giga-Projects to generate initial momentum in their delivery. This reassured capital providers, and conversations started around potential investment opportunities. However, the question remained as to whether the Giga-Projects could operate within the framework and principles followed by private capital. Giga-projects, accordingly, were transferred to the Public Investment Fund (PIF), the country’s sovereign wealth fund (SWF). This created the platform for these projects to transition from funding to financing. Despite this, capital providers are still reluctant given the quantum needed. For many, even a small ticket size is likely to disrupt their risk-return balance, starving these projects of much-needed capital, even if a single asset is part of the investment focus. We have seen this unfold in King Abdullah Economic City (KAEC). An exceptionally built commercial real estate district with stunning views overlooking the Red Sea, where you can have lunch by the shoreline and be back in for your 3 PM meeting. On paper, the asset generated sufficient investment interest for institutional investors, but it suffered from sustained demand generation within the City, showing that single-asset investments leave returns exposed to ecosystem risks.
The Opex.
The Giga-projects are designed to achieve an iconic status. In the architectural world, iconic status is achieved when a building is recognised by its outline, and the Giga-Projects are achieving this via their scale. This translates into specialised operations & maintenance, inflating costs and eroding Net Operating Income (NOI), reducing the asset’s attractiveness to global capital markets, thereby hindering the transition from funding to financing.
Time Horizon.
Returns from Giga-projects are realised over ultra-long time horizons. As time horizons elongate, the volatility of underlying factors increases. In comparison, time horizons for general capital providers are much shorter, creating a misalignment and preventing them from making long-term commitments. The situation is further complicated when phases within the overall giga-project keep on missing their milestone dates.
Our direct experience with Giga-Projects informs our view on the financial sustainability of such projects. These projects will require a strong financial recalibration; otherwise, financial unsustainability is inevitable, as shown by Neom’s The Line. Delayed projects show the initial symptoms of a system in need of substantial financial recalibration. Such projects can achieve their social goals while being a social drag. This isn’t a failure of vision, but of the underlying financial system. We believe the right way to achieve this financial recalibration requires both a design response and an organisational one; the latter is addressed in a future article.
Inclusive and Holistic Design
The last component of the framework, holistic design, goes beyond the visual nature of the built environment. Giga-projects have immense potential to transform populations, unlock economic segments, create community cohesion, reinforce cultural contexts, and other aspects. A design process that excludes these realities produces assets that are technically impressive but socially brittle.
Design Process.
Holistic design begins with a simple premise: places are systems, not objects. They succeed when independent artefacts, such as urban mobility, environmental goals, socio-economic outcomes, and others, are integrated into one functioning system. This requires a multidisciplinary design methodology informed by user experiences and continuous feedback from investors, designers, operators, end customers, economists, policymakers, and other stakeholders to realise the vision, much like the distinct instruments of an orchestra converging to create a symphony. The issue is not one of capability but of contextual understanding, specifically, whether design teams have sufficient familiarity with on-the-ground realities to make informed decisions. A walkable experience is a core requirement for most master plans in response to rising environmental concerns. However, how do you design, at scale, a project that encourages walking in the Saudi heat? You can create cooled walkways as seen in Qatari developments, but would they be sustainable for Saudi Arabia’s scale? There are no easy answers, but they must be confronted during design, not discovered during operation.
Cultural Grounding.
Significant regional diversity exists in Saudi Arabia concerning the built environment. Its regions exhibit distinct urban patterns, motifs, and architectural features that reflect the culture of their respective localities. A Giga-Project or a placemaking project should integrate such designs into the built environment. The buildings of Jeddah’s historic downtown were built around rawashin, intricately crafted wooden latticework balconies providing ventilation, shade, and a view of the street below without being seen. This cultural logic exists across regions, each carrying its own spatial traditions: the Rawashins of Jeddah, the Najdi mud architecture of Riyadh, or the Palm tree outlines for Ahsa. The Saudi Architectural Standards formally recognise this diversity, mandating that it be designed into the built environment rather than treated as optional decoration. For Saudi Arabia, it is about regional representation in an equitable manner. Global design firms treat these features as styling rather than substance, creating designs that look Saudi but don’t feel it.
It demands sensitivity to local culture and social patterns, recognising that global best practice must be adapted, not imported.
Design Dividend.
When design is both inclusive and holistic, it becomes a force multiplier for the entire value chain. It reduces long‑term operational costs, strengthens community legitimacy, and enhances the project’s ability to attract talent, investment, and tourism. Most importantly, it aligns the physical environment with the project’s strategic intent, ensuring that the built form reinforces - rather than contradicts - the economic and cultural narrative. While much of Saudi’s built environment is under construction, two examples illustrate the importance of holistic design.
Firstly, upon its initial opening, King Abdullah Financial District opened with a limited offering, predominantly office buildings unable to attract the everyday visitor.
It was beautifully designed, and aesthetics were on par with, if not exceeding, similar financial districts across the globe. However, it failed to connect with average visitors as it lacked experiences designed for them, creating a disconnect. Deliberate interventions by introducing retail, dining, and public programming transformed the perception among Riyadh’s residents. The result: a place where everyone wants to be.
Secondly, Roshn’s communities have generated significant positive interest, a testament to their integrated designs. They were designed around the rhythms of Saudi family life by integrating mosques, schools, retail, and appropriately scaled housing, generating demand that exceeded expectations and demonstrating the strength of inclusive and holistic design.
Inclusive and holistic design is critical to the success of Giga-Projects, and it is not a stylistic choice. It is the mechanism that integrates the components above, turning vision into reality. Currently, the Giga-Projects are in various stages of development, making a definitive ecosystem-level assessment of whether inclusive and holistic design has been achieved premature. An individual assessment, however, is possible, but cannot be captured in the scope of this article. Each project warrants its own dedicated analysis, and that is precisely where we intend to go next.
Concluding Thoughts
At the time of writing, the regional conflict remains ongoing, and its longer-term implications are still unfolding. Rather than reacting to the situation as it stands today, our analysis is grounded in the structural frameworks underpinning the real estate ecosystem, frameworks that are intended to hold regardless of how the geopolitical picture resolves. The intent is to treat this as the first checkpoint in an ongoing assessment, returning to it over time to see how the sector’s trajectory tracks against what’s outlined here.
Ten years in, the Saudi Giga-Projects pass the test that matters most at the outset: they are well-visioned and correctly aligned with economic diversification. Their vulnerability lies elsewhere. Placemaking has been pursued global-first and local-second, and the financial architecture beneath the projects has not kept pace with their ambition. Iconic scale carries permanent operational costs, and ultra-long horizons sit uneasily with private capital. With much of the built environment still under construction, there is a window to recalibrate. That means a design response that grounds places in Saudi lived experience, and an organisational response that we will address in our next article. The shift required is from building objects that capture the world’s attention to cultivating ecosystems that capture long-term value.